Conviction rate

The conviction rate of a prosecuting unit of government (federal, state, etc.) reflects the likelihood that a case brought in that jurisdiction will end in conviction. Conviction rates reflect many aspects of the legal processes and systems at work within the jurisdiction, and are a source of both jurisdictional pride and broad controversy.

Rates are often high, especially when presented in their most general form (i.e., without qualification regarding changes made to original charges, pleas that are negotiated, etc.). Rates across jurisdictions within countries can vary by tens of percentage points (e.g., across states within the U.S.). In other cases, they are uniformly high, although for distinct reasons (e.g., in China and Russia).

Introduction[edit]

The conviction rate of a prosecutor or government can be defined as the number of convictions divided by the number of criminal cases brought.[citation needed]

Examples[edit]

Canada[edit]

In Canada, 2017-2018 data provided by Statistics Canada indicate an overall rate of conviction of 62% (of those charged in adult court). This is much lower than one might infer from the 3.6% acquittal rate because 1/3rd of the cases are withdrawn (either directly or indirectly via a "Crown Stay") before they reach a verdict. According to Canadian trial lawyer Kim Schofield, the effective conviction rate falls from 62% to approximately 50% if one excludes guilty pleas and deals.[1]

China[edit]

In China, the justice system has a conviction rate of 99.9% in 2014.[2] Out of 1.2 million tried, only 1,039 were found not guilty - an acquittal rate of around 0.08%. [3] Several local protectorates in China have set a "zero acquittal policy," resulting in a negative performance evaluation for trials that end in acquittal. As a result, Chinese prosecutors tend to withdraw indictments at the pre-trial stage rather than risk acquittal.[4]

India[edit]

The national conviction rate in India for offences of the Indian Penal Code is 57.0% in 2021,[5] a statistic that varies state by state; the state with the highest conviction rate is Mizoram (96.7%), while the state with lowest rate is Assam (5.6%) in 2021.[6][7][5]

Israel[edit]

The conviction rate in Israel is around 93%.[when?] Around 72% of trials end with a conviction on some charges and acquittal on others, while around 22% end with a conviction on all charges. These statistics do not include plea bargains and cases where the charges are withdrawn, which make up the vast majority of criminal cases.[8] The military courts which try Palestinians, as young as 7, who are not Israeli citizens have a far higher conviction rate: 99.74% in 2010 according to official figures.[9]

Japan[edit]

The conviction rate is 99.3%. By only stating this high conviction rate it is often misunderstood as too high—however, this high conviction rate drops significantly when accounting for the fact that Japanese prosecutors drop roughly half the cases they are given. If measured in the same way, the United States' federal conviction rate would be 99.8%.[10][11][12]

In Japan, unlike in some other democracies, arrests require permission of judges except for cases such as arresting someone while committing a crime. Only significant cases with sufficient evidence are subject to indictment, since becoming a party to a criminal trial imposes a burden on a suspect; Japan's indictment ratio is only 37%—“99.3%” is the percentage of convictions divided by the number of indictments, not the criminals. As such, the conviction rate is high.[13]

Russia[edit]

In 2018, the gross conviction rate in Russia was above 99%. In 2018, 0.25% of court cases ended in acquittal, compared with 0.3% in 2017 and 0.54% in 2014.[14] Jury trials, where not guilty verdicts are more common, are rare.[15] However this statistic does not take into account the 22-25% of cases that get dismissed prematurely.[16] Instead, the Russian statistics consider the number of convictions out of the cases that have made it to the end, not being dismissed in the process. This is unlike other countries, where all non-convictions (like dismisses and acquittals) are combined into one statistic.

United Kingdom[edit]

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland has three prosecuting bodies that cover different geographic areas. The Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service for Scotland. In Northern Ireland Public Prosecution Service for Northern Ireland (PPSNI) and in England and Wales most prosecutions are brought by the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS). The figures for 2017–2018 in England and Wales show at Crown Court the conviction rate was 80.0% and at Magistrates Court the conviction rate was 84.8%.[17] In Northern Ireland figures show at Crown Court the conviction rate for 2017-2018 was 87.2% and at Magistrates Court it was 79.0%.[18]

United States[edit]

In the United States federal court system, the conviction rate rose from approximately 75 percent to approximately 85% between 1972 and 1992.[19] For 2012, the US Department of Justice reported a 93% conviction rate.[20] In 2000, the conviction rate was also high in U.S. state courts. Coughlan, writing in 2000, stated, "In recent years, the conviction rate has averaged approximately 84% in Texas, 82% in California, 72% in New York, 67% in North Carolina, and 59% in Florida."[21]

In 2018, the Bureau of Justice Statistics reported that among defendants charged with a felony, 68% were convicted (59% of a felony and the remainder of a misdemeanor) with felony conviction rates highest for defendants originally charged with motor vehicle theft (74%), driving-related offenses (73%), murder (70%), burglary (69%), and drug trafficking (67%); and lowest for defendants originally charged with assault (45%).[22]

There are frequent "guilty acceptance" plea deals in the United States. That said, the ostensible "conviction rate" may not be accurate because the charges are dropped.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Harford, Tim (host), and Colin Jones and Kim Schofield (interviewees) (18 January 2020). More or Less: Japan’s 99% Conviction Rate (Radio broadcast). London, UK: BBC. Event occurs at 5:21-8:46, esp. 6:23-7:02, 7:25-8:02. Retrieved 21 January 2020.
  2. ^ McCoy, Terence (March 11, 2014). "China scored 99.9% Conviction Rate Last Year". The Washington Post.
  3. ^ Connor, Neil (14 March 2016). "Chinese courts convict more than 99.9% of defendants". Retrieved 4 February 2019 – via www.Telegraph.co.uk.
  4. ^ Foundation, The Dui Hua. "Behind the Rarity of China's Acquittals". Retrieved 2022-03-29.
  5. ^ a b "NCRB Crime Statistics 2021 Vol 3" (PDF).
  6. ^ Deccan Staff (4 December 2017). "Kerala's conviction rate double national average". Deccan Chronicle. Retrieved 4 February 2019.
  7. ^ Tiwary, Deeptiman (8 August 2015). "Conviction rate up, Kerala tops with over 77%". TimesofIndia.com. Retrieved 21 January 2020 – via TNN.
  8. ^ Yahav, Telem (14 May 2012). "Study: Only 0.3% of criminal cases end with acquittal". Ynetnews. Retrieved 4 February 2019.
  9. ^ Chaim Levinson (29 November 2011). "Nearly 100% of All Military Court Cases in West Bank End in Conviction, Haaretz Learns". Haaretz. Retrieved 8 October 2023.
  10. ^ http://justicedenied.org/issue/issue_67/federal_courts_jd67.pdf 99.8% Conviction Rate In U.S. Federal Courts Can Make Japanese Prosecutors Jealous
  11. ^ https://www.doarlaw.com/blog/2021/04/what-you-should-know-about-the-federal-governments-conviction-rate/ What you should know about the federal government’s conviction rate
  12. ^ https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/carlos-ghosn-and-japans-99-conviction-rate/ Carlos Ghosn and Japan’s ‘99% Conviction Rate’
  13. ^ http://www.moj.go.jp/EN/hisho/kouhou/20200115.html Response by MORI Masako, Minister of Justice, to the articles of the Wall Street Journal
  14. ^ Carroll, Oliver (May 29, 2019). "Russian justice system criticised after acquittal rate drops to 0.25%" The Independent.
  15. ^ Bennetts, Marc (August 14, 2017). "Russian conviction rate is higher than under Stalin" The Times.
  16. ^ "Российские суды прекращают уголовные дела каждого четвертого подсудимого". Российская газета (in Russian). Российская газета.
  17. ^ "Key measures". www.cps.gov.uk. Retrieved 2020-01-21.
  18. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). www.ppsni.gov.uk. Archived from the original (PDF) on 6 September 2018. Retrieved 17 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  19. ^ Beale, Sara Sun, Federalizing Crime: Assessing the Impact on the Federal Courts, vol. 543, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science
  20. ^ DOJ Staff (2012). "United States Attorneys' Annual Statistical Report for Fiscal Year 2012" (PDF). United States Department of Justice. Retrieved 28 October 2014.
  21. ^ Coughlan, Peter J. (June 2000), In Defense of Unanimous Jury Verdicts: Mistrials, Communication, and Strategic Voting, vol. 94, The American Political Science Review, pp. 375–393
  22. ^ BJS Staff. "FAQ Detail: What is the probability of conviction for felony defendants?". Bureau of Justice Statistics. Retrieved 21 January 2020.

External links[edit]

Further reading[edit]