Source code InfoField | Gnuplot code set terminal svg size 800 600 fname "Times,13" set output "Estimations of Human Brain Emulation Required Performance.svg" set notitle set key reverse Left left at 1993, 10**40 noautotitles box # good chunk of whitespace to put the key in set datafile separator "," set logscale y # use a logarithmic scale, for easier visualization of exponential growth set format y "10^{%T}" set yrange[10**9:10**45] set ylabel "Flop/s" set xrange [1990:2065] set xlabel "Year" set xtics 1990,5,2065 set mxtics 5 #set grid # I think it looks better without, but it's a matter of preference # labels for each of the levels of emulation set label "Analog network population model" at 2010, 10**14.5 left set label "Spiking neural network" at 2010, 10**17.5 right set label "Electrophysiology" at 2035, 10**22.5 right set label "Metabolome" at 2047, 10**25.5 right set label "Proteome" at 2050, 10**26.5 right set label "States of protein complexes" at 2054, 10**27.5 right set label "Distribution of complexes" at 2064, 10**30.5 right set label "Stochastic behavior of single molecules" at 2064, 10**42.5 right set label "Functional Simulation" at 2020, 10**16.5 left set label "Neural Simulation" at 2030, 10**19.5 left # best-fit is as of June 2022 list, to two sigfigs # horizontal lines plotted to represent levels of emulation # plot of historical TOP500 #1's stored in a .csv # colors and sizes picked from what I thought was easiest to see # titles done for one of each type of line, for the key plot 87000000000.0*(2**((x-1993)/1.2)) lw 6 lc 0 w lines title "Trendline (doubling every 1.2 years)",\ 10**15 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \ 10**18 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \ 10**22 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \ 10**25 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \ 10**26 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \ 10**27 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \ 10**30 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6", \ 10**43 ls 3 lt rgb "#0073E6" title "Sandberg, Bostrom estimates (2008)",\ 10**16 ls 2 dt (50,10) lc rgb "#89CE00", \ 10**19 ls 2 dt (50,10) lt rgb "#89CE00" title "Kurzweil estimates (2005)",\ "TOP500.csv" using 1:2 ls 1 lt rgb "#B51963" pt 7 ps .5 with linespoints title "Fastest Supercomputer (TOP500 #1)" Data The #1 computer over the years from TOP500, used to generate the supercomputer line at the end of the Gnuplot code. The name of each supercomputer is in the file, but unused in the code/chart. Whole number years represent a June list, .5 represents a November list. Year,Flop/s,Name 1993,59700000000,CM-5/1024 1993.5,124000000000,Numerical Wind Tunnel 1994,143400000000,XP/S140 1994.5,170000000000,Numerical Wind Tunnel 1996,220400000000,SR2201/1024 1996.5,368200000000,CP-PACS/2048 1997,1068000000000,ASCI Red 1997.5,1338000000000,ASCI Red 1999,2121000000000,ASCI Red 1999.5,2379000000000,ASCI Red 2000.5,4938000000000,ASCI White 2001,7226000000000,ASCI White 2002,35860000000000,Earth-Simulator 2004.5,70720000000000,BlueGene/L beta-System 2005,136800000000000,BlueGene/L 2005.5,280600000000000,BlueGene/L 2007.5,478200000000000,BlueGene/L 2008,1026000000000000,Roadrunner 2008.5,1105000000000000,Roadrunner 2009.5,1759000000000000,Jaguar 2010.5,2566000000000000,Tianhe-1A 2011,8162000000000000,K computer 2011.5,10510000000000000,K computer 2012,16324800000000000,Sequoia 2012.5,17590000000000000,Titan 2013,33862700000000000,Tianhe-2A 2016,93014600000000000,Sunway TaihuLight 2018,122300000000000000,Summit 2018.5,143500000000000000,Summit 2020,415530000000000000,Fugaku 2021,442000000000000000,Fugaku 2021.5,1102000000000000000,Frontier 2022,1102000000000000000,Frontier 2022.5,1102000000000000000,Frontier 2023,11940000000000000000,Frontier 2023.5,12060000000000000000,Frontier 2024,17420000000000000000,El Capitan |